The crypto market started August with a sharp drop, and Stellar (XLM) was one of the affected coins. According to crypto analyst Altcoin Doctor, the whole month could remain difficult for altcoins like Stellar. In his latest video on the Altcoin Doctor YouTube channel, he explained why things might get worse before they get better.
He looked at something called the altseason index, which shows whether it’s a good time for altcoins or Bitcoin. Right now, the index is stuck in the middle.
That means the market is not fully focused on either one. Based on past patterns, Altcoin Doctor said we’re likely going to stay in this sideways or bearish phase until October or November, when altcoins usually get more attention again.
XLM Price Could Drop to $0.33 or Even $0.24
Altcoin Doctor then focused on Stellar’s price. At the moment, Stellar is trading around $0.39, but it already dropped over 7% on the first day of August. The analyst believes this pullback could continue. He explained that prices often fall after big jumps, especially when they move too far away from their usual average levels.
For Stellar, he pointed out two price levels to watch: $0.33 and $0.24. These are possible places the price could fall to if the market stays weak. He also mentioned that the U.S. Federal Reserve recently kept interest rates unchanged, which usually makes it harder for money to flow into riskier assets like crypto.
Because of this, Altcoin Doctor thinks Stellar could keep falling for now. He doesn’t expect a major rebound in August or September.
Altseason Might Not Start Until October
The rest of the market also shows signs that it’s not yet time for altcoins to shine. Altcoin Doctor looked at charts for USDT dominance and Bitcoin dominance. When these are going up, it usually means investors are avoiding altcoins and moving into stablecoins or Bitcoin instead.
Bitcoin dominance has been climbing for a while, and if it keeps going higher, altcoins like Stellar may drop further. He said Bitcoin dominance could rise to 71%, which would not be good for XLM price in the short term.
He also looked at the total crypto market cap and the altcoin market cap. Both have started to pull back from recent highs. He believes this pullback could continue until the market returns to safer levels. For altcoins overall, he sees support at around $1.28 trillion and maybe even as low as $1.21 trillion. That could mean a 10% drop across many altcoins before things improve.
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Even with all this bearish news, Altcoin Doctor is not giving up on altcoins. He just thinks the next big move for them will happen later in the year, possibly in October or November. When that happens, Stellar could bounce back. But for now, the focus is on staying cautious.
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