Given that Bitcoin is still below a crucial indicator, it may be vulnerable to price decline. As per crypto analyst Ali Charts’ tweet, BTC has been trading below its 200-day Simple Moving Average for more than a month.
Historically, this signals a higher probability of sharp corrections. Ali suggests that Bitcoin may drop further, potentially reaching its Realized Price of $31,500 if it continues to struggle below this critical level.
What you'll learn 👉
Bitcoin Trades Below Key Level
Bitcoin’s price action indicates weakness as it continues to trade under its 200-day SMA, which is at $64k. This indicator, widely used to evaluate long-term market trends, has historically signaled bullish momentum when Bitcoin stays above it. However, as Bitcoin remains below this level, it raises concerns about further price declines.
Ali’s analysis points to the Realized Price of $31,500 as a potential downside target. The Realized Price is the average price at which all Bitcoin in circulation was bought. For buyers, this price often serves as a key psychological support level. If Bitcoin can’t get to its 200 SMA, it could have more selling pressure.
Historical Patterns Point to Bearish Outlook
According to Ali, the current market structure bears similarities to previous bearish cycles. These cycles are where Bitcoin traded below both the 200-day SMA and the Realized Price.
Past cycles have shown that when Bitcoin dropped below these two key levels, the market saw notable corrections. These corrections brought the price closer to lower support zones.
The potential drop to $31,500 aligns with these historical patterns. Ali’s chart indicates that previous price recoveries only occurred once Bitcoin reclaimed both the 200-day SMA and Realized Price, suggesting that the current bearish trend could continue until Bitcoin crosses these thresholds.
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On-Chain Activity Signals Lower Interest
In addition to the technical indicators, Ali also highlighted a decline in on-chain activity related to Bitcoin exchanges. Lower exchange volume momentum suggests that investor interest in Bitcoin has decreased, further contributing to bearish market sentiment.
As fewer buyers join the market, prices often stay the same or go down when trading activity drops. With all of these things taken into account, the outlook for Bitcoin is guarded, and more drops are possible if it stays below key support levels.
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