Spot ETF Approval Will Spike Bitcoin’s Price, but True BTC Bull Run Will Only Start After This Happens in 2024
According to crypto investor @LadyofCrypto1, there are two potential scenarios for when Bitcoin could break its all-time high and enter a true bull run. The first is 6-8 months after the Bitcoin halving in 2024, following historical trends. The second is much earlier, potentially in January 2024, sparked by the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Historical Trends Suggest Late 2024 Bitcoin Bull Run
As @LadyofCrypto1 explains, “People love to think ‘this time is different’ but will it be?” Across the previous two market cycles, Bitcoin hit its peak about 6-8 months after the halving. The recent crypto bear market also lasted 12 months, right in line with history. Given these trends, @LadyofCrypto1 believes Bitcoin will follow the historical timeline and break its ATH in late 2024.
ETF Approval Could Push 2024 Bitcoin Breakout
However, @LadyofCrypto1 notes the potential for a Bitcoin spot ETF approval in January 2024 to accelerate Bitcoin’s price growth. If approved, an ETF could push Bitcoin over $69k “a lot earlier” than the historical timeline. So while past performance suggests late 2024, an ETF catalyst could make this cycle different.
364 Days to New ATH if History Repeats
Crypto trader @thescalpingpro echoes the historical timeline for a Bitcoin top. As noted, “In previous two cycles, $BTC took 234 – 216 days to break above its previous ATH.” With the 2024 halving 130 days away, adding 234 days post-halving leads to a new all-time high around 364 days from now, likely in December 2024.
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The analysis from @thescalpingpro and @LadyofCrypto1 suggests late 2024 is the most probable timing for Bitcoin to begin its next true bull run phase. However, an ETF approval in early 2024 could accelerate Bitcoin’s climb and spark an earlier breakout. While past performance offers clues, several factors make the exact timing unclear. For now, traders will watch eagerly for both regulatory developments and the upcoming 2024 halving to gauge when Bitcoin may leave this crab market behind for good.
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