Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas is holding firm on his prediction that there is a 90% chance a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) will gain approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by January 10th.
“People asking me if we changed odds. No, we still holding line at 90% odds of approval by Jan 10 (aka this cycle), the same odds we’ve had for months (before it was cool/safe),” tweeted Balchunas.
A Bitcoin ETF approval is expected to open up crypto investing to more mainstream institutional and retail investors. According to Bloomberg, an approval could drive more money managers to cryptocurrencies and serve as a breakthrough moment for crypto’s acceptance on Wall Street.
Balchunas says he is now watching for more amended and final filings to come in from companies seeking Bitcoin ETF approval, as well as clarity on whether the ETFs will use in-kind creation or cash creation.
In-kind creation involves contributing actual bitcoins to the ETF’s holdings, while cash creation means buying bitcoins directly on the spot market when shares in the ETF are issued. The cash creation methodology is seen by some as riskier.
The imminent arrival of Bitcoin ETFs has led some major banks to make lofty price predictions, with Bloomberg reporting last month that an approval could help propel Bitcoin’s price to $100,000 by 2024. However, the path to approval is still unclear as the SEC has yet to approve a Bitcoin ETF after rejecting over a dozen proposals so far.
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