Bitcoin has followed a predictable boom and bust cycle since its inception, with each market cycle taking approximately 4 years from peak to peak. Crypto analyst Mags [@cryptomags] recently dove into Bitcoin’s historical data to estimate when the next all-time high could arrive based on previous trends.
In the 2015–2019 cycle, Bitcoin took 609 days to recover from its bear market low and surpass the previous peak. The 2019–2023 cycle was slightly longer, lasting 670 days from bottom to new high. Plotting these reference points suggests Bitcoin’s current cycle may follow a similar trajectory.
If the current cycle matches the 2019 timeline, Bitcoin’s next record high could come around September 2024. However, historically, cycles have become incrementally longer. If that pattern holds, an extra 10% would equate to ~737 days from the recent 2022 bottom to a new peak.
By this projection, Bitcoin could realistically exceed $69,000 and print a fresh all-time high sometime in Q4 of 2024, as early as November, based on past market rhythms.
Of course, many variables could accelerate or delay this timeframe. But analyzing Bitcoin’s empirical cycle data gives a baseline estimate of when the next meteoric bull run could commence. For patient investors with a multi-year outlook, Bitcoin’s next ascent to the apex is statistically likely to occur between late 2023 and late 2024 if historical trends repeat themselves.
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