Late April Update: Technicals
The Bitfinex and Tether saga seems to be dragging the whole market down and Elastos is no exception. The daily ELABTC chart looks depressing with price slipping through support zones in what looks like a free fall.
Elastos is getting closer to its long-term support zone at 51600 satoshis.
RSI is oversold and volume is weak which could potentially be bullish signs – there would however need to be a near-term sentiment change in the whole market that is currently scared and wary of the aforementioned Bitfinex plight. So, as we explain below, BTC is the locomotive and ELA and other coins are wagons that follow it. Right now, market is leaking, altcoins more than bitcoin and that is why I think ELA is not a good buy right now, until we confirm an intermediate market bottom and the Tether shambles are over.
Late April Update: Fundamentals
Elastos has announced the completion of its Delegated Proof-of-Stake (DPoS) component which is ready to go live after the community voting process. As indicated earlier this week, the DPoS launch will represent the completion of its hybrid consensus algorithm, which is a hybrid of Auxiliary Proof of Work and Delegated Proof of Stake (AuxPoW X DPoS).
Having announced the finish of this development, the election and implementation process has been divided into 6 phases. Although the announcement does not specify the timeline and dates for each phase, it is expected that the process will be complete by the second quarter of 2019.
Elastos aims to create a new kind of Internet, powered by blockchain technology.
It’s a VM (virtual machine) that can be ran on any device increasing security, processing power, fixes holes in the internets general protocols, allows devices to run in C as opposed to java etc.
Elastos wants to make digital assets scarce, identifiable and tradable. Property rights pave the way for wealth creation, and Elastos intends to build a new World Wide Web that respects those rights.
Apps can be built on Elastos, and therefore take advantage of keeping things on the blockchain and making them all accounted for and scarce. The best part is that Elastos can be implemented into any operating systems we use today, making it instantly adoptable and invisible to the end users. It’s like installing Java on your computer that runs in the background, and when a program requires Java it will just load seamlessly when you open it.
People can access these Dapps via their mobile phones, without changing their operating system. The old Internet is a Web of information. If you click a URL, you get data. Elastos is creating a Web of apps. When you click a URL, you get code. The Elastos Web will be a special economic zone where Elastos tokens function as the base currency.
Elastos already has its main network that went live couple of months ago at https://blockchain.elastos.org/. Da Hongfei of NEO and Jihan Wu of Bitmain are both early investors and advisors to Elastos.
Year in Review
3 major developments in 2018 were:
- Merge mining with Bitcoin via Bitmain
- Alpha release of Elastos Smartweb
- Official launch of Cyber Republic
Elastos was one of those chinese projects that created big community behind it in a very short period of time.
One announcement back in October from the Elastos team hit like a lightning bolt – the team came out with a statement that “after consulting with trusted advisors within the Elastos ecosystem, including legal experts”, the Elastos team have made the decision to unwind their ELA coins lock-up program and end it early.
It is not exaggeration to say that this news was devastating to the spirit of Elastos investors. Posts about their disappointment are flooding ELA communities while the team didn’t put forward any more official stances and answers to the investors.
The unlock happened under a pretense of penetrating the western markets and regulation compliance. Two and a half months after the announcement, not much has happened.
A big milestone in November was reached with 220k Elastos carriers being deployed around the globe.
Elastos carrier is modifying current routing protocols to make them decentralized. Elastos Carrier routes traffic in a different way. As of now, when internet traffic is routed, it all needs to be passed through a central server at some point. For instance when you go to a website, traffic first goes to a big server/database that translates the URL into an IP address.
f the company owning this server decides to blacklist a URL, people can’t use it. This also makes internet traffic routing predictable, and also it means that if you shut down the server, or if the censor cuts off traffic to certain IP/DNS addresses, you can effectively censor certain website or apps. With Elastos, internet traffic is relayed peer to peer.
Elastos (ELA) Roadmap for 2019
There is no official roadmap for Elastos.
What we do know from their articles, interviews and community is that Elastos is planning a Proof of Stake consensus model. Other plans includE:
– Port of Ethereum VM as a friend chain.
– Strengthen the Elastos carrier network with Elastos TV boxes. Estimated 1 million tv box nodes should already be out in the world.
– Smart-web beta: more consumer friendly rather than strictly for developers.
– Any applications currently being built by developers in the Cyber Republic.
General Market Movements and Sentiment Shift
The downfall of altcoins that were mainstream media darlings at the start of the last year, ELA among them, can be attributed, in part, to novice investors getting scared off once the bear market kicked in with a vengeance. Every resurgence of bitcoin in recent period, was met with the, for the most part, inability of altcoins to rally with it. Reason for that can be rookie investors learning from their mistakes, while smart money that was previously watching from the sidelines has begun to enter into bitcoin.
These entities weren’t about to buy BTC when it was trading at an all-time high, but they’ll take a look now, having missed the boat the first time around. None of them, it seems, are interested in altcoins however, despite the fact that many are trading at a 5x discount. Institutional investors may be cautious, but they’re not foolish.
Our ELA Price Prediction for 2019
ELA, as the rest of the market, is tied at the hip of bitcoin’s price action. If bitcoin embarks on another bull run, ELA can hope for one as well. Since that is very unlikely, don’t expect much to change for ELA price-wise in this year. So 2019 will be a year of boring sideways action with minor bitcoin ignited jumps and slumps.
The main currency in cryptocurrency markets is Bitcoin and given this, altcoins tend to fuel Bitcoin runs and Bitcoin tends to do the same in return. Given this relationship, Bitcoin price movements (or lack thereof) tend to effect altcoin prices.
When Bitcoin goes up swiftly, it will likely:
- Suppress or depress altcoins as money flows into Bitcoin;
- Or, take altcoins along for the ride
In cases when Bitcoin plunges, it will likely:
- Depress altcoins as money flows into fiat;
- Or, cause altcoins to boom as money flows into them, but this is rarely the case.
When Bitcoin moves sideways, it will likely:
- Cause altcoins to mimic that as traders wait for a clear sign on the direction of the market;
- Or, cause altcoins to flourish as traders look for returns in altcoins and try to get favorable trades in terms of BTC pairs.
To summarize, Bitcoin is the focal point of the crypto market in many ways, and with BTC trading pairs on every exchange, the gravity of Bitcoin is hard to evade.
The majority of projects will fail — some startups are created just to gather funds and disappear, some would not handle the competition, but most are just ideas that look good on paper, but in reality, are useless for the market.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum said:
“There are some good ideas, there are a lot of very bad ideas, and there are a lot of very, very bad ideas, and quite a few scams as well”
As a result, over 95% of successful ICOs and cryptocurrency projects will fail and their investors will lose money. The other 5% of projects will become the new Apple, Google or Alibaba in the cryptoindustry. Will ELA be among those 5%?
Good probability of that happening.
First and foremost, VeChain has built a broad and ardent community that is more educated and patient than most of other “get rich quick” altcoin’s communities where holders only discuss price in a hostile and ill-bred manner.
The Elastos team is very balanced in their approach to the 3 most important dimensions of every crypto project: technology development, forging business partnerships and community fostering.
ELA has a chance to be one of the first broadly used blockchains in one of the most realistic use cases for a decentralized ledger: building the new decentralized internet. All of this instills holders with justified hope that their token is worth holding through the bear dominated times.
No one has or knows to read the crystal balls, especially for a project as technical and complicated as Elastos. But for most blockchains, the toughest task is recruiting enough users to achieve the threshold for the network effects and economies of scale. For Elastos that’s going well for now —the blockchain network is well on its way to reaching a mass adoption-sized user base, through partnership with Shanghai Shijiu TV. The next task, a much harder one, is getting people to use it.
All of this summed up means one thing: ELA might live through couple of orchestrated and, for a regular trader, completely unpredictable pumps but the majority of time will be murky sideways trading with small volume and no significant interest from the market.
Price will heavily depend on what BTC will do and since many analysts think BTC will not be making big moves in this year, it is hard to expect ELA will do them either. The price will probably stagnate and record slow-moving depreciation or appreciation depending on the team activity, potential technological breakthrough or high-level partnership.
Market prediction for Elastos 2019
With the market being completely unpredictable, forecasting the cryptocurrency price is really more of a gamble and luck rather than a data driven guesstimate.
Let’s throw a glance at the eminent publications and personalities, and their predictions regarding the Elastos (ELA) price, which will give us another point of view to consider:
Algorithm at cryptoground.com sees a big increase in price on the horizon for Elastos: prediction for the December of this year stands at $19, which would mean almost 10x gains to the current price.
As we are used to it, Walletinvestor’s forecasting is on the skeptical side as they see ELA dropping to below $2, at around $1.3 by December.
This automated software has a moderately optimistic algo that sees ELA hitting $4.50 by the end of the year.